There are no magic bullets when it comes to feeding a projected world of 9 billion by 2050

When I was studying agricultural science in the University of Melbourne in the early 1970s we all held the belief that we were well on the way to achieving a food secure world.  What became commonly known as the Green Revolution was happening around us, international agricultural R&D aid was expanding to support developing countries and a strong “post-agricultural” mind-set was emerging as the mantra for economic decision-making in developed countries.  On this latter point, there was strong support emerging for the contention that agriculture was a “sunset” industry. Food security all but disappeared from the public eye.

But the need to continue to achieve food security didn’t really go away – it merely fell off the radar. Undoubtedly, it is back now as a pressing global issue – the radar screen is full of reports, academic papers, publications, and social media and press activities.  There is a lot of “noise” in a cluttered space making it difficult for most people to comprehend, and leaving the topic ripe for over-simplifications.  Thus, much of the comment getting into the public domain has an element of “this is THE solution”.  And it would be nice to have a magic bullet to solve world hunger, malnutrition and feed a future population of 9 billion.

Food security, however, is a complex problem and “there are no magic bullets”(i).

In his recent book, One Billion Hungry, Gordon Conway provides a compelling and accessible analysis of the acute and chronic crises at the heart of the food security problem.  He presents an optimistic, but cautious, view that the world can feed 9 billion people.  It is a book deserving of a wide readership and an even wider public discussion.   

In the final chapter, Conway lists 24 qualifications to his contention that, yes, we can feed the world.  I list these below...and urge you to read the book to gain a fuller understanding of the complex challenge we face across the world.

We can feed the world if:

1. We recognise food security affects us all and the time to act is now
2. We acknowledge the challenges we face are unprecedented and require concerted action
3. The world’s leading donors of aid implement their commitments to food security
4. The Doha Round is completed with satisfactory outcomes for developing countries
5. There is explicit attention to the creation of enabling environments
6. The appropriate governance for food security and agricultural development is in place
7. Fair, efficient output and input markets are created on a countrywide basis
8. Greater attention is paid to gaining increased value for farmers through producer associations and widespread availability of micro-insurance and microcredit
9. We acknowledge the key role of agriculture in development
10. We recognize the need for a new doubly  green revolution
11. There is explicit recognition of the critical role of smallholder agriculture
12. More attention is paid to agroecological research and development
13. There is a major focus on getting poor rural people out of poverty
14. Technologies for agricultural development are developed and applied, providing they are locally appropriate, whatever the source
15. We accept that biotechnology is an essential tool in attaining food security
16. There is more funding for improving mixed livestock systems
17. We recognise the role of farmers as innovators
18. There is increased support for integrated pest management systems
19. There is widespread adoption, in appropriate environment, of systems of conservation farming.
20. We focus our investments on small-scale water harvesting and community water
21. There is significant investment in agricultural adaption to climate change
22. There is urgent attention to financing the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture
23. We invest in scaling up as a route to rapid success
24. We recognize that public-private-community partnerships are crucial to successful scale-up.

There are no magic bullets…. (p 347)

i.      Gordon Conway with Katy Wilson (2012) One Billion Hungry : Can we feed the world?  Comstock Publishing Associates, Cornell University Press; Itacha and London.  ISBN 978-0-8014-7082-4 (pbk)